Here are my goal splits for each lap at Umstead. Writing it down makes it official and will hopefully motivate me come race day, since I've put it out there for all to see.
Lap 1 (12.5 mi) - 02:05:00 total (02:05:00 lap) 10min pace
Lap 2 (25.0 mi) - 04:10:00 total (02:05:00 lap) 10min pace
Lap 3 (37.5 mi) - 06:27:30 total (02:17:30 lap) 11min pace
Lap 4 (50.0 mi) - 08:45:00 total (02:17:30 lap) 11min pace
Lap 5 (62.5 mi) - 11:15:00 total (02:30:00 lap) 12min pace
Lap 6 (75.0 mi) - 13:45:00 total (02:30:00 lap) 12min pace
Lap 7 (87.5 mi) - 16:27:30 total (02:42:30 lap) 13min pace
Lap 8 (100 mi) - 19:15:00 total (02:42:30 lap) 13min pace
Pretty simple strategy. 10 min pace the first two laps, 11 min pace the second two laps, 12 minute pace the third two laps and 13 minute pace the last two laps. My goal is to finish between 18-20 hours and this strategy is (in my opinion) a realistic way to accomplish that goal. My PR is 21:32:00 so this would constitue a 2:15 minute PR but I think I have it in me. If things are going well, and I can hold 12min pace on the last two laps, or perhaps pick up the pace to 11's than I might get closer to my 18hr stretch goal. If I'm struggling late in the race this plan gives me a 45min cusion. Worst case scenario I should manage a PR as long as I'm still moving late in the race. We'll have to see how it plays out on race day but I'm confident going in.
Over and out.